| Factor | Status | Evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Checkout flow change (July 8) | Verified | Shopify changelog + session recording cart abandonment spike at shipping step | Primary — ~70% of CVR loss |
| PMax brand cannibalization | Verified | Branded IS drop + CPC increase correlating with PMax launch date (June 22) | ~$3,500 wasted spend |
| Meta creative fatigue | Inferred | Frequency 4.8x + CTR decline pattern consistent with fatigue signals | Emerging — not yet primary |
| Seasonal demand shift | Unconfirmed | July historically softer for B2B supply — need YoY data to confirm | Unknown — needs client data |
| Competitor price action | Unconfirmed | No auction insight data available for this period | Unlikely primary cause |